Swerve LaunchGap™ | Launch Delay Economic Modeler

Swerve LaunchGap™

Modeled Year +5 value gap

$14.79Mafter a 6-month launch delay

On-schedule modeled cash$44.84M

Delayed modeled cash$30.05M

Added program spending$2.50M

Revenue ramp through Year +5$59.84M

Assumptions used for this report

Year 1 revenue $5.0MProgram budget $15.0MDevelopment window Year −3 to launchDelay 6 monthsHorizon Year +5Year −1 burn $5.0M/yearAnnual customer-base loss 10%/yearEffective loss for selected delay 5.0%Growth 60%, 45%, 35%, 25%

Swerve LaunchGap^™Launch Delay Economic Modeler

Cumulative modeled cash

On schedule versus a 6-month delay

USD millions

On schedule $44.84M6-month delay $30.05M

Cumulative modeled cash is revenue realized through Year +5 less original and incremental program spending. It is not a profit-and-loss statement or valuation.

Source: Swerve Insights SWA-2026-001 · Crisp RJ. Six Months Late: How a Launch Delay Can Consume an Entire Development Budget. Swerve Insights. SWA-2026-001. Version 1.1. Published August 31, 2026; revised September 2, 2026.© 2026 Swerve Molecular Consulting, LLC · swervemolecular.com

Swerve LaunchGap^™Launch Delay Economic Modeler

Year +5 gap composition

How the 6-month impact stacks

USD millions

$9.79MRevenue shifted beyond Year +5

$2.50MAdded development cost

$2.50MCustomer-base loss (5.0% effective)

Revenue shifted beyond Year +5$9.79M

Added development cost$2.50M

Customer-base loss (5.0% effective)$2.50M

Total Year +5 value gap$14.79M

Swerve LaunchGap^™Launch Delay Economic Modeler

Year +5 delay comparison

Three, six, and twelve months under your assumptions

Scenario	Revenue shifted	Added development	Customer-base loss	Total gap	Share of budget
3-month delay	$4.89M	$1.25M	$1.37M · 2.5%	$7.52M	50%
6-month delay	$9.79M	$2.50M	$2.50M · 5.0%	$14.79M	99%
12-month delay	$19.58M	$5.00M	$4.03M · 10.0%	$28.60M	191%

Swerve LaunchGap^™Launch Delay Economic Modeler

Budget-equivalence comparison

How much of the original program budget does delay consume?

Original program budget$15.0M · 100%

3 months$7.52M

50%

6 months$14.79M

99%

12 months$28.60M

191%

0%100%206%

How the model scales

Revenue assumptionsChanging Year 1 revenue proportionally scales the revenue ramp, revenue shifted beyond Year +5, and customer-base loss.

Customer-base assumptionsThe annual loss rate is prorated linearly by delay month. At the 10% base-case rate, three months applies 2.5%, six months 5%, 12 months 10%, and 24 months 20%.

Development assumptionsOriginal cost follows the annual schedule. Added delay cost extrapolates the Year −1 monthly burn rate through the selected delay.

Important model limitations

This is an illustrative decision-support model, not a company forecast, valuation, or profit-and-loss statement. It holds the measurement endpoint at Year +5 from planned launch and recognizes annual revenue evenly by month. Revenue shifted beyond the selected endpoint is not necessarily lost forever. The annual customer-base-loss rate is prorated linearly by delay month and is a user-selected sensitivity, not an industry constant. The delay-extension calculation assumes the Year −1 burn rate continues unchanged through the delay. The model excludes gross margin, cost of goods, taxes, working capital, discounting, financing cost, probability of success, reimbursement, and terminal value.

Model basis: Swerve Insights SWA-2026-001, Version 1.1. Copyright applies to the original software, explanatory text, and visual presentation; it does not claim ownership of facts, mathematical relationships, or general analytical methods.

Generated reports and graphics may be republished when Swerve identification, source attribution, citation, and model limitations remain intact. See the Terms of Use.